Prediction: Estimate of a specific event happening at a specific point in time.
Projection: Estimate a future outlook based on historical trends.
Forecast: Estimate a future scenario based on assumptions of likelihood
Factors affecting land supply and demand forecast 19
Population factor : Cohort Survival.
Housing factor : Household Formation.
Employment factor : Labour Force Outlooks
Socio-Economic factors :
Historical Trends : Share Breakdown , Sectoral Growth
Market Economies and Policies : Global, National, Regional
Land Economics : Competition between land uses , land Supply Interconnectivity : Infrastructure, Sectoral Clusters, Institutional Linkages
Cohort Survival method of population forecast : 19
•Take an existing population in year 0;.
•At year 1, the population is one year older;.
•Some children are born and added to the population;.
•Some people die and are subtracted from the population ; and
•Some people move in and some out yielding a net gain or loss of migrants
•This becomes the new year1 population and then the process repeats itself to year 2 and so on.
Housing Forecast
•Household formation is a function of the probability of different age groups occupying types of housing.
•Household formation (headship rates) assumptions are socioeconomic phenomenon:
•Getting married.
•Having children.
•Getting divorced.
•Becoming widow/widower
Employment forecast 19
•Population forecast as a base to forecast employment.
•Labour force participation rates are applied to population age 15+ to obtain the total labour force locally.
•Unemployment rates are applied to the total labour force to obtain the employed labour force locally.
•Net in-commuting is accounted for to estimate available jobs locally
Historical inputs:
•Population growth.
•Household formation and sizes
•Housing mix by type.
Forecast assumptions:
•Permits and applications
•Policy goals
•Market trends
•Land supply
Socio-Economic factors
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Urban Development Management Study notes for M. plan Sem-III
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