In developing scenarios, we can distinguish different phases in any policy building process :
1. Problem characterization
A specific scenario exercise will have to start with the definition of the policy issue at stake, for example, energy security, climate change, and so on, and, related to that, the system boundaries, that is, what is the spatial scale of the subject and the relevant time horizon? For example, when developing scenarios for city planning, global scenarios for the next 100 years will not be necessary, although they can give input to the process in defining relevant exogenous factors.
2. Problem conceptualization
This phase identifies the drivers that impact the system under analysis. The drivers can be exogenous/external (for example, technological developments or oil prices), exogenous/internal (for example, policy choices) or endogenous factors (drivers that are dependent on other drivers, for example, energy demand as the result of traffic development or energy saving).
3. Scenario framing In this phase, the logic of the scenarios is defined. The certainty of future development of the key drivers is identified. Can continuity be assumed and trends extrapolated (for example, on energy use)? Alternatively, for which exogenous drivers are contrasting scenarios needed because the uncertainty range is large or discontinuities cannot be excluded (for example, the oil- price development, or new Indian regulation on electric vehicles)? If so, what are the main drivers and do these need contrasting scenarios?
4. Scenario description
Here, each scenario comes to life, that is, it is described in a credible and salient way, for example, using figures, images, narratives and metaphors. According to van der Heijden (2005), a scenario that will actually be used in policy formulation is internally consistent, links historic events with hypothetical ones in the future, carries storylines that can be expressed in simple diagrams, is as plausible as other scenarios, reflects elements that are already determined, and identifies indicators or ‘signposts’ that show that the scenario is already occurring.
5. Scenario assessments :
In this final phase, potential policy options are identified and assessed. Many questions typically emerge in this phase. What, for example, is the impact of policy options in each scenario? What trade- offs do policymakers have to face? Can no- regrets options (in other words, measures that are right in all scenarios) be defined? How can the cost effectiveness of policies be optimized? Numerical models can be an important tool to use, but in the last few years (serious) gaming has often been used as an option to better understand the attitudes of key players in a scenario and to define robust policy recommendations.
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Urban Development Policies Study notes for M. plan Sem-II
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